Football Betting Picks

Predicting the future has always been an intriguing subject for human beings. There were a lot of prophets since the beginning of age. Because of their prophecies they managed to became immortal and be forever present in out minds

But not everyone is a psychic, and even if one was to have psychic powers, we all saw in movies, you can’t use your powers for personal benefit. I’ve personally always loved this explanation….

In the last decade people concentrated more on predicting the future based on what they know: looking at the past to understand the present and predict the future.

I guess it’s the same with bettors or tipsters.

Another reason of why there are so many bettors out there may be their love for the game. They grew up watching football, watching their favourite team, they grew up playing football in the school yard and calling themselves Maradona, Pele, Gascoigne or Eusebio.

There are a lot of factors to be taken in consideration before placing your bets, some more important than others, but if you want to be a constant winner you’ll have to take all of them in consideration: form, team news, motivation, tactics, expectations,fans opinions, referee, weather.

Every single one of these factors plays its role in the final outcome of the game. The problem is that nobody managed to put together an algorithm for everybody to see the percentage that each factors has, that’s why all factors have to be studied with patience and meticulously.

Superficiality will always be your enemy in this field, and I believe in life in general.

One should treat their bets exactly how he/she treats her job. As it represents a source of income, it should be seen like an investment, but always when investing you have to take out money upfront, that’s why a lot of responsibility is needed.

People’s brain represents a mystery in many parts of it.

It is said that some kind of substance is produced when a person is gambling or betting. Many scientists have studied that aspect but no clear conclusions have been drawn.

What’s known for sure is that after a bet is lost most of us tend to place the following bet thinking at the one we lost before. That’s a mistake from the start as it will influence our judgment and we will select our bets mostly based on odds, thinking what odd we need in order to get back what we lost and still have some profit.

It’s a mistake that all bettors do sooner or later, without exception, kind of like, you are not a driver until you’ve bumped your car.

Having a strong psychic is an essential quality in this field or else betting will became gambling…. Leave the past bets behind and concentrate fully on the future ones, because if you’re in loss, only this way you will be able to be in profit again.

So you see there are a lot of dangers this activity implies, lots of work and efforts, lots of research but more important lots of seriousness and continuity. This activity is no joke and should be treated with the proper respect, that’s why experts advice is always welcome, let people with experience in the industry do the job for you.

With lots of years behind, with knowledge and enough time to make the research work. This is one of the only ways you won’t fail.

Fantasy Football – A Lesson In Monetizing Anything

Attention entrepreneurial spirits – the following would have seemed as fictional as Star Wars to our grandfathers, not to mention Vince Lombardi. However, it’s all true and there’s a valuable lesson in this – you can monetize anything!

Congratulations to the NFL. They’ve found a way to keep a huge fan base despite the myriad off the field issues they seem to shrug off weekly. The referee strike of 2012 and the inept replacements? Forget it – that didn’t even register on the NFL fan’s “List of Things to Care About. ” How could it? This is a league that has recently seen popular players either indicted or found guilty of domestic violence, rape, child abuse, and murder. Nice guys, huh? In short, there is NOTHING that would keep us from tuning in each Thursday, Sunday, and Monday (in my lifetime, I am sure there will be a game on every night of the week). TV ratings suggest this monster really IS too big to fail.

So why do we do it? It’s not because we care about who wins or loses the actual game. Some of us do, but we’re now in the minority. No, the wins and losses are not even the second reason. Sports gambling, though illegal in most states, WAS what kept the NFL atop the list for sports fans. People gamble nearly $10 billion on the Super Bowl alone. Imagine what a full season brings in. The joke used to be something like “Daddy’s favorite team is the Dolphins and he wants them to win by less than 4 points.” However, because gambling has such a negative connotation in society, people don’t talk about it much, and certainly not when they lose.

The thing that will help the NFL remain the king of the hill indefinitely turns out to be the photo negative of gambling. It’s Fantasy Football, and it’s nearly reached the point where we can remove the word “Fantasy” from the name. It’s quite real, and it’s here to stay. Gambling is illegal because it’s considered a “game of chance.” Wagering on Fantasy Football is legal because it is considered a “game of skill” (don’t ask me who decides these things, but it’s true). Gambling is ugly because it can ruin people’s lives when they lose. Fantasy Football is innocent and fun, even though the same amount of money is spent on participating, and yes, half of it is lost. With gambling, there is only money. With Fantasy Football, there is money, but also funny team names, trophies, and bragging rights. It’s market norms versus social norms, once again. Unless you live in one of the few states where gambling is legal, it takes connections to people with connections to partake. Participating in Fantasy Football only requires an internet connection and as little as a $1 investment.

Fantasy Football’s roots can be traced back to the 1960’s, but that was a different world. It wasn’t until the last 10 years, thanks entirely to the internet, that it took flight and became a craze… and a SERIOUS business. About 40 million Americans are playing some form of Fantasy Football this year, and they are spending approximately $2 billion to do so, but that’s just the beginning. When you consider the entire industry, the empire that is Fantasy Football is estimated to be worth more than $50 billion! And it’s going to continue to grow. Everybody’s doin’ it. I play, my friends play. Heck, even NFL players play! Just this week, one NFL player tweeted “I’m probably going to lose my fantasy football matchup this week cause (Adrian Peterson) can’t play Sunday for disciplining his child… ” Really.

While you won’t hear announcers talk about point spreads, they frequently refer to Fantasy statistics. The crawl at the bottom of the TV screen is now devoted to the new national pastime. As big as the NFL has become, it recognizes that it NEEDS the Fantasy Football element to keep its brand healthy, so they go out of their way to promote it. There are magazines, books, radio shows, and TV shows devoted to it and there is even a TV series based on a group of friends tied together by their Fantasy Football league. Only in America!

On-line Fantasy Football sites are raking in money, capitalizing on the popularity of this “game of skill.” One of the most popular sites boasts that it pays out more than $10 million per week. Considering they are cleverly charging 10% on every dollar to facilitate the thousands of contests among strangers, it’s easy to calculate how a company like this can quickly become worth millions almost overnight. And it’s not just NFL football. Most of these sites provide the forum for “Fantasy” baseball, hockey, basketball, golf, and the major college sports.

The lesson in all of this is simple – If you build the site, they will come, and they will come with dollars to spend. Find the product that people are crazy about and make it available to them on-line, in any form you can. If you don’t have the product itself, write a book about it. If you don’t want to write a book, write an article and sell it. Position yourself as an “expert” (whoever questions that anyway), and you’ll command a price.

Now, if you’ll excuse me. It’s nearly game time and I need to root for my kicker’s offense to move the ball down the field to the 30 and then get stopped. Strange thing, this Fantasy Football.

NCAA College Football Pointspread

We’ve all seen them, those extremely large college football pointspreads. Maybe USC is favored by 36 over some joke of a team. Or Florida is favored by 29 over Florida A&M. These games jump off the page right away just for the sheer size of the spread.

And yeah they nearly make you snicker because they’re such a joke, but what about really betting on these games where spreads can now and again make 40 points or more? Should you try to get down on a game with a spread this big?

The short response is no, but there are a number of reasons why. First of all, when you’re talking about spreads of this size that means you’re also talking about some REALLY bad teams. And we’ve all been there, but no one likes to have to root in a very bad team. One more sack allowed, an added turnover, an additional missed tackle, it’s like the movie ‘Groundhog Day,’ error after mistake.

A different trouble is there’s no real precedent to track. How can you decide if the team getting pounded will keep on working, playing tough to the final gun goes off, and trying to get that score that makes the number?

Now with the BCS involved, some schools will show no mercy because they’re trying to obtain those all- powerful points in the polls. You would believe that would increase even more later on in the season, right? Well even that theory isn’t a lock based on earlier performances.

And that’s my final and perhaps most imperative point. The statistical facts doesn’t validate taking either side in these lopsided games. Looking at the data we could only get hold of one instance where teams covered with a winning betting percentage [http://www.squidoo.com/bettingpercentage] over 53%. With a break-even point of 52.7%, that’s hardly enough to motivate assurance.

My counsel: stay away from the Giant NCAA Pointspread!

All the best,

Rich Allen – aka Sports Betting Professor